WHERE ARE ALL THE ENLIGHTENED MUSLIMS?

This poll result from a recent Science article should make any reasonable, rational person shudder

Copyright: Science, 2008

Neglecting the rather pleasantly heartening observation that the ‘backward’ Kazakhs are more enlightened than their fellow Muslims, the fact delineated in the article that there apparently are virtually no Young-Earth creationists is hardly soothing in light of these results. After taking a look at this, is it surprising that the ‘moderate’ Muslims are not stepping forward in large throngs to condemn their fellow Muslims’ killing of innocents? The problem is not of moderates versus extremists. The problem is of mindsets that fan irrational behaviour based on rejection of world-views which are bolstered by mountains of evidence. The question we have to ask, not just of Muslims but also Christians, Jews and other deeply religious people, is whether they will truly be able to condemn their fellow religious travelers’ acts of terrorism based on a reasoned and rational response? They may possibly do it for reasons of pragmatism, perhaps reasons related to political expediency or perhaps related to survival itself. But that is still a quite different stance from condemning such acts because they are as far from reason as we can imagine. Believing in evolution is not necessary for deploring these acts. But I think that a world-view as firmly grounded in reason and evidence as evolution can be a convenient yardstick to map out the general mentality of a population. Of course such surveys turn up disconcerting results in the most advanced country in the world too, namely the United States. Christians are no less ignorant than Muslims. But even in secular countries like Turkey, the Muslims seem to beat the Christians in terms of sheer numbers.

The concept of the moderate Muslim is dealt another blow by polls taken in the Muslim world regarding suicide terrorism. As Sam Harris documents in his book The End of Faith, polls regularly show that 20% of people even in Turkey answer “Yes” when asked “Is suicide bombing in defence of Islam ever justified”. Given the population of Turkey, this is a huge number in terms of absolutes. Are we to believe that 14 million Turkish Muslims are Jihadi fundamentalists? That would stretch the imagination of even the most paranoid person. Indeed, probably 13.8 million out of these 14 million call themselves ‘moderate’ Muslims and live peaceful and pious lives. And yet they readily agree that suicide terrorism in the service of Islam can be justified at least under some circumstances. The proportion of such people in other Muslim countries is unspeakably high. There is a genuine problem here that transcends political, educational and socio-economic disparities.

Now it’s also true that there is a substantial proportion of the population cited as “not having thought about evolution”. To me it seems that members of this population would be of two kinds; those who basically just don’t think about the topic and think it’s irrelevant to their lives, and those who have given it some thought and are genuinely undecided about it. One may then think that the latter group stands a good chance of emerging as the next faction of progressive, moderate Muslims who would institute reform. But how can this happen? This latter group is going to be a weak-voiced minority in a majority that won’t allow them to get an influential platform for their views. Much has been said about how Islam can only be reformed “from the inside”. While this statement will always ring true, what exactly would be the source of this inside reform? It’s not that there is suddenly an influential springboard which will serve as a political or social vehicle for transformation. For example, a moderate Muslim who believes in evolution and stresses its acceptance is probably not going to be elected to high public office, just like in the United States. Even if he wants to spread his message, how will he do it? The schools are mostly religious ones, with few secular ones that are going to take on the task of solidly educating their students about evolution. Even if the schools wanted to do it, there would be a pronounced backlash from many parents. Thus society itself would be largely hostile or passive to such a moderate Muslim’s views.

As Harris says, the progressive position is also perceived as being theologically bankrupt; after all they are trying to argue against Muslims who are more devoutly following the Holy Book and therefore have already assumed the high ground. We have seen what has happened to progressive and secular Muslims like Salman Rushdie and Ayaan Hirsi Ali. Such enlightened Muslims are simply not in a position to stay in their respective Muslim countries and bring about reform from inside; in fact they have already been condemned by many of their fellow Muslims. Their stories would clearly discourage any potential progressive recruit from treading the same kind of path. So to me it seems that the safest strategy for a so-called progressive and moderate Muslim would be to either silently suffer and tacitly accept the trappings of his culture and society, or to completely break out and defect to more secular countries, in which case his role in own country becomes meaningless. It’s a catch 22 situation in which moderates have to either accept the opinion of the majority, or become pariahs. In this light, I don’t see a large-scale revival, let alone revolution, spearheaded by moderate and progressive Muslims anytime soon.

The point again is simple; as long as people have more or less blind and unquestionable faith in their Holy Book, as long as they more or less worship their favourite Invisible Man in the Sky, the distinction between moderate and extremist is bound to turn cosmetic. Moderates who may despise the details of the execution of the fundamentalists’ actions may nevertheless at least tacitly agree with their stated goals. Even moderate Muslims (or Christians and Jews for that matter) would think that the world would be a better place if everyone in it was Muslim. And as long as this attitude persists, we cannot rid the world of religious fundamentalists.

A MAP OF THE BUILDING?

A lack of basic equipment is inexcusable

As the Mumbai attacks draw to an end and as we all keep on feeling stunned, horrified and helpless, for some reason one question more than others keeps making me feel outraged and keeps on riddling my mind- Why didn’t those courageous NSG commandos who fanned out in the Taj have any maps when they went in? As they stormed the complex hotel full of a maze of corridors and rooms, they were immediately at a disadvantage since the terrorists knew the hotel inside out. As the leader recounts in this interview, the commandos stepped in the dark without any maps and were confronted with gunfire and hand grenades coming from all directions. In addition, the terrorists knew the hotel well enough to vanish in the middle of an attack and resurface elsewhere. Can we imagine police in New York City not having any maps of the Waldorf hotel if terrorists take over it?

As if lack of maps did not erect enough barriers, the commandos also did not seem to have night vision goggles which would have been invaluable in these circumstances. Another report lists the lack of high-quality rifle telescopes that would have helped far-away snipers to distinguish between hostages and terrorists and possibly take the terrorists out cleanly from a distance. And all this before we even get started on the relatively late response, the dearth of advanced firearms in the hands of local police, and the already existing great difficulty that the commandos faced of making out hostages from terrorists and convincing hostages that they themselves were not terrorists. To me it all sounds atrocious.

The thorniest situations are usually described by an analogy involving looking for a black cat in a dark room, a cat that might not even be there. This scenario comes close to that most absurdly nightmarish of all scenarios. Shouldn’t there have been at least a few copies of maps of major hotels in the Mumbai Municipal Corporation? Would it have been too much to ask that maps for a major city building not just be confined to the custody of people inside the building itself? When we see a team of top commandos getting ready to storm a building besieged by terrorists even in Hollywood blockbusters, one of the first things we see is the leader or someone else pulling up a map and intensely scrutinizing it with his team on top of a car hood or on the ground. This is not fiction. It should be basic preliminary protocol and basic common sense. Not having access to equipment as fundamental as maps, night vision goggles and high-quality rifle scopes is an insult to our army, police and special operations personnel and it makes me want to barf.

There is only one thing more disturbing and heartbreaking than watching a superb team of well-equipped operatives trying hard and failing to quickly finish off a terrorist operation. It is to watch a top team of brave operatives rush into an operation without being well-equipped. Especially the sort that should have been essential and readily available. Systems which do not provide such basics should be abolished and cast into the bin of antiquity. Our brave men and women deserve this much, even from our lackadaisical and spineless political leaders.

A NUCLEAR WEAPON IN MUMBAI: THE UNTHINKABLE

As the horrific attacks on Mumbai are still in their last stages, I keep on worrying about only one scenario; a nuclear weapon detonated on Indian soil, perhaps in Mumbai. The thought makes me shudder and lose at least a little sleep at night.

Several top analysts in the US such as Graham Allison and Joseph Cirincione have identified kinks in the US security system, especially in border security, that would make it possible for terrorists to use a nuclear weapon on American soil. Allison thinks that a nuclear attack of some kind and magnitude on US soil may already be overdue. If that’s the case with the United States which is still one of the most relatively secure places in the world, one can only imagine that the scenario would be much worse in India.

It is very difficult to overestimate the effects of a weapon with even a 1 kiloton yield- a dismal yield by any standards- in a city like Mumbai, irrespective of the time of the day. A more typical scenario usually talks about a 10 kiloton weapon, but as in other such scenarios, it’s always best to be as conservative as possible and then extrapolate to worse cases. Now, the 20 kiloton bomb in Hiroshima killed at least 100,000. Mumbai’s population is an astounding 20 million compared to Hiroshima’s 300-400,000 at the time of the atomic bombing.

Let’s imagine a macabre scenario for a second in which a extremely watered down 1 kT bomb was detonated at Chatrapati Shivaji Terminus, the same location where the terrorists began their killing spree. Extensively depending on the conditions including structures of buildings, wind patterns, road traffic, presence of combustible material and other variables, such a blast could essentially level most of the buildings in the Fort area (within a radius of 1 km or so), including all the famous hotels which the terrorists targeted. There would be almost total and instant loss of human life within this radius, probably numbering in a few thousands right there and then. Those who were not directly struck by the shock wave would be obliterated with shards of flying glass, metal and construction material. Given enough combustible material around, thermal radiation from the blast could also start fires, the effects of which were historically neglected in some such studies. Such fires could seal the fate of people trapped in buildings, many of whom will be seriously injured to begin with. Farther from the blast, prompt and delayed radiation would bathe people and property for miles, essentially shutting down the financial part of the city including the BSE for at least months. The effect on the economy would be devastating.

A dirty bomb detonated in Mumbai with materials like strontium 90, cesium 137 or the infamous polonium 210 would limit the (still significant) blast and thermal effects to the conventional explosive used to package the radioactive material, but the radiation effects would still kill or incapacitate thousands, render large swathes of real estate inhospitable for years, and at the very least severely cripple the financial and commercial sector of the Indian economy, a consequence whose aftereffects themselves would be disastrous in several ways. Similar effects of varying magnitude would be visible in any other of India’s biggest or second-biggest cities. Dozens of well-known and loved names spring to mind; Bangalore, Chennai, Delhi, Calcutta, Chandigarh, Pune, Trivendrum, Jaipur and Varanasi to name a few.

The above scenario discussed a weapon with an embarrassingly low yield. There are ‘suitcase’ nuclear weapons small enough to fit in a backpack with yields from 1-10 kilotons. Even by the most abysmally conservative estimate, at least 100,000 people could die in Mumbai from the immediate (blast, radiation, thermal) and delayed (radiation) effects of such a ‘small’ 1 kT explosion. A more typical 10 kT weapon would extend the above effects to at least Churchgate, Grant Road, Marine Lines and Girgaon. The death toll from such an explosion could be 500,000 or so, more than twice the total number of people killed by the devastating 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami. Either the former or certainly this would be a number beyond imagination and a catastrophe beyond comprehension. It will create complete chaos in the country, and the resulting civil strife and riots might kill thousands more.

Sadly, what’s really frightening is that smuggling in a small weapon with a 1 kiloton yield could be cakewalk for terrorists. This is not fear-mongering or paranoia. Weapons-grade uranium, especially when concealed beneath common and heavy tamper and shielding materials, can be extremely difficult to detect by most conventional radiation counters (Weapons-grade plutonium which has a higher energy gamma and neutron radiation signature is easier, although still not trivial). It would be relatively easy to detect such uranium if suspected containers could be leisurely inspected over a period of several hours. It is quite a challenge on the other hand to detect such a bomb among the thousands of containers that rapidly flow across India’s borders every single day. Considering that Mumbai itself handles 50% of India’s maritime traffic, this becomes a weapons detection nightmare. India’s long sea and land borders thwart this attempt even more, the same way they thwart it in the US. And it goes without saying that once inside the country, the high population, facile movement of goods across state borders, immense network of road and train networks and the inadequacy of security at all these routes and points would make it virtually impossible to detect such a weapon. Being of similar appearance, language and culture, the terrorists who escort this deadly device would seamlessly blend in among the population, most of which is busy securing its own square meals to be vigilant.

Nor would it be impossible to obtain such a weapon in the first place, even though this would probably be the most challenging task of all. Analysts have estimated that the price of a 10 kiloton nuclear weapon in the black market may be about 10 million dollars. Based on the quality and yield, this price could possibly drop down to 2-5 million dollars. It is not very difficult for networks like Al Qaeda to secure such a weapon and then, even if they don’t use it themselves, auction it off to eager bidders who would carry out both their own objectives as well as that of Al Qaeda’s. Evidence suggests that Al Qaeda has already courted Pakistani scientists about nuclear know how as well as material once or twice (Cirincione, 2006). B. Raman in a heartfelt essay worries about the fate of our nuclear materials and weapons and loses sleep over it. I think he should lose even more sleep over it because as far as I know, our own nukes and materials are not the most attractive target for terrorists. The most lucrative weapons raw materials and perhaps weapons themselves have been thought to be loose nukes in the former Soviet Union (Allison, 2004). There were roughly 20,000 nukes in the Soviet Union around the time of its demise. Assuming that only 1% of these nuclear weapons failed to be secured, it still means that an alarming 200 are unaccounted for. Even one weapon among these with its yield degraded would be enough to cause the above catastrophe. A slightly more benign but still volatile scenario exists with Pakistan’s nukes.

For now, terrorists have taken the even more easier way out of using conventional weapons and crude tactics. These crude tactics killed ‘only’ 125 and have shaken a city and nation’s soul. The event has left us even more stunned and disturbed because of the sheer viciousness, bravado and efficiency of the terrorists. We better not even try to imagine what it would be like with a crude nuclear weapon or dirty bomb. Mr. Prime Minister, no more words; we already know as much as you do what you want to convey to us. We need action now.

TERRORIST ATTACKS IN MUMBAI

At least 80 100 apparently killed. This is really horrific, and the extremely well-coordinated and extensive nature of the attacks is stunning and very disturbing. Apart from the Taj Hotel and the Oberoi Hotel, Madam Cama Hospital has also been apparently targeted. A group which has the embarrassingly juvenile name of the ‘Deccan Mujahideen’ has taken responsibility for the attacks. The ubiquitous Lashkar-e-Toiba is also not far away from accepting responsibility. The situation is still tense, with several hostages being held by the terrorists in the two hotels. I hope everyone who reads this is ok.

Several top police officers have been killed in the operation. One of them, Hemant Karkare, was the head of Mumbai’s Anti-Terrorism Unit. I cannot for the life of me figure why Karkare put his life on the line at such a crucial moment. While I feel deeply about his sense of sacrifice, I found it highly disconcerting to see photos of Karkare dressed in a simple shirt and trousers supplemented by a bulletproof vest and helmet just before he went in. Wouldn’t it have been much more useful for Karkare to direct the operation when his crucial guidance was needed? Sacrificing one’s life for the country may be a noble endeavor, but it’s unfortunately not always necessarily the most effective one. Karkare was also involved in investigating the Malegaon blasts and his expert advice will now be sorely lacking in that investigation.

It’s interesting that some officials from the US State Department are calling this a “game changer”. I am thinking they are saying this because of many reports, not entirely substantiated, saying that the terrorists targeted people with US and British passports. Perhaps an unintended beneficial side-effect of this tragic incident may be increased cooperation and coordination between US and Indian intelligence agencies, if only to protect US citizens in India. India certainly might benefit from such cooperation in its own fight against terrorism. India is in dire need of surveillance and sound intelligence to track and stall terrorist movements. I am usually not paranoid about terrorist attacks, but with all the talk about terrorists detonating a dirty or conventional nuclear weapon in the US (itself predicted by many analysts to be an impending event), I am much more worried that they will find it easier to do this in India.

I personally also wondered what, if any, could be the relation between these attacks and the upcoming election. I sometimes get the feeling that such attacks could be a possibly sound way of undermining confidence in Congress when it comes to national security. People’s confidence in the government has already been eroded by the rather weak and ineffective response by the government after the July 2006 Mumbai train bombings, as well as its servile pandering to minority groups. Increasing the frequency and intensity of such attacks could achieve two goals for the terrorists; get rid of the current government, and possibly help to bring in a more Hindu fundamentalist faction which may make it easier for them to garner support, generate propaganda and recruit new supporters.

Finally, I would like to hear an explicit statement from our honorable Mr. Singh, something to the effect of “I don’t care whether the people behind this are Hindus, Muslims, Christians or Sikhs. I want all of them brought to justice by any and every means possible”. Then of course we will expect him to act on these words; comprehensively and objectively beef up security and prosecute those responsible without thinking about political correctness. But for now, it would be quite a revelation to hear him express something other than the usual trite boilerplate bleating.

Update: What’s up with CNN? Those in the US would have noticed the remarkably uninterrupted coverage on the new channel that has been going on for more than 24 hrs. I don’t every remember CNN covering an Indian terrorist crisis so extensively and continuously. Maybe this time Americans and tourists were involved. But I think that such coverage could also possibly reflect the increasing importance that CNN thinks India plays on the US foreign policy stage. One of the most far reaching effects of this crisis could be for the US to join India in putting intense pressure on Pakistan. Clearly a destabilized Pakistan supporting terrorist activity in India is going to increasingly a headache for the US.

TRAMPLED UNDERFOOT

There’s a discussion going on in the Acorn’s comments sections about the heinous attacks and bloodbath in Jaipur that occurred yesterday. Nitin says that we are left with two options; accept things as they are or take the battle to the terrorists. As many point out in the comments, the latter action is convoluted, uncertain, and for one thing eminently politically incorrect (which is perfectly fine). While this or that political action may or may not mitigate things, let’s not forget the elephant in the room- religion. It’s religion that infuses these men with such fanatical zeal. If we could wave a magic wand and banish religion, would such attacks instantly stop? No. Not unless we can also banish human nature. But at least desperate men would not be infused with a fatalistic ideology from childhood. At least they will not instantly acquire a convenient handrail to hold on to by way of which they are guaranteed a quick passage to martyrdom and a non-existent heaven. Eliminate this insidious religious influence and things will be much better even if not perfect.

I have discussions with friends who often point out that in places like Saudi Arabia the problem is not religion per se, but poverty, lack of opportunities and the resulting desperation. I agree that these factors surely influence the inevitable march of young, poor and disillusioned men towards religion, which superficially provides comfort and a sense of brotherhood. But if it were not for these readymade emotional outlets, it would be much harder, both in principle and in practice, for these young men to vent out their anger and frustration. It’s religion that provides a convenient target for that frustration, and endows youngsters with not only faith and inspiration, but high-quality grenades and explosives. The bottom line is; men will keep on committing crimes for various reasons. But religion makes it much easier than we can ever imagine. Let’s not ignore this.

And our government of course, with its extraordinary commitment toward cosseting the “feelings” of minorities (and not infrequently the majority) at any cost with no regard for the greater good, would condemn the attack, visit the hospitals, call for peace, and go back to business within a day.